QUANTUITION VIX Dashboard

Friday May 15, 2026 — OPEX Close

OPEX Bites. COR1M Pivots.
SPX −1.24% / VIX +6.78%. Scenario B starts to activate as index catches up to names.

SPX

7,408.50

−1.24% (−92.74)

VIX

18.43

+6.78% (+1.17) 🚨

VVIX

92.93

close · VVIX/VIX 5.05

VIXEQ

43.05

−2.43% · names eased

VIXEQ−VIX

~24.6

⚠️ compressing from 26.6

COR1M

10.82

+26.52% 🚨 PIVOT

📖 Active Watch — Peak Dispersion Scenarios (named Wed May 13)

A

Names normalize, spread tightens — the boring path. Originally ~60% odds. Now ~45% — VIXEQ eased today (−2.43%) but COR1M ripped to 10.82, suggesting convergence is happening via VIX rising rather than VIXEQ falling alone.

B

Index catches up to names — mega-cap event triggers re-correlation, VIX rises to meet VIXEQ. Originally ~25% odds. Now ~40% — STARTING TO ACTIVATE. COR1M +26.52% off floor is the first real pivot signal. Put Skew +0.47 in decomp confirms protection bid.

C

Both surfaces lift on macro shock — geopolitical or rates event hits while constituents loaded. Still ~15%. No new signals firing here. Watch SkewDex + TailDex if a shock hits during the Tue/Wed catalyst window.

📊 Friday's Story — The OPEX Bite

Monthly OPEX day delivered exactly the kind of move the framework warned about. SPX −1.24% to 7,408.50. VIX +6.78% to 18.43. Real selling, real protection bid. Two weeks of mechanical vanna unwinds got interrupted by a session where customers actually wanted vol exposure on the downside.

The decomp tells two stories at once. Sticky Strike +1.01 (DOMINANT) — mechanical lift from spot falling, totally expected. Then the customer flow: Put Skew +0.47 (puts BID), Call Skew (0.25) (calls eased). That's a clean protection-on signature, just with smaller convexity prints than Monday May 11's full collar. Parallel Shift (0.28) negative — but mechanical, not flow-driven. Sticky Strike's surge offset what would have been a bigger Parallel positive.

The big news is COR1M. Crashed all week toward 8.56 mid-week, then ripped +26.52% to 10.82 on Friday. Back above 10 for the first time in weeks. That's the dispersion-unwind signal we've been watching. Combined with VIXEQ easing while VIX ripped, the VIXEQ−VIX spread compressed from 26.62 toward ~24.6. Index catching up to names — Scenario B starting to activate.

Caveat: one day doesn't break a regime, especially OPEX day where dealer hedge roll-offs add their own pressure. But the pivot signal is real and the catalyst window opens Tuesday (VIXpiration) and Wednesday (NVDA earnings). The asymmetric setup we identified Wed is now activating in real-time.

Flow Signature

🛡️ Protection ON

Put Skew +0.47 · real downside bid

Dispersion Regime

⚠️ PIVOTING

COR1M +26.52% · first real pivot

Catalyst Window

📅 OPEN

Tue VIXpiration · Wed NVDA

🔍 Go Deeper — Tab Guide

Decomposition

Sticky Strike +1.01 mechanical, Put Skew +0.47 real flow. Parallel Shift (0.28) is NOT the same as May 7/12 negatives — it's the offset to mechanical surge. Print #10 in the 5-week arc.

Term Structure

Body led the move. VIX +6.78% vs VIX9D +0.74% — front barely budged. Curve compressed at the kink. Back end firm. Different shape than the recent vanna-unwind moves.

VVIX / VIX

VVIX/VIX dropped to 5.05. VIX outran VVIX again — real spot vol demand, not VIX-call speculation. COR1M pivot at +26.52%. Dispersion suite updated.

Rabbit Hole

NEW LENS — VIX Futures VRP Map. Third lens on the same regime. Curve "too flat" in VRP terms, back-end HV at extreme lows. McMillan's framework added to the toolkit.

🐐 In Plain English

Friday was an OPEX day and the market actually moved. SPX down 1.24%, VIX up nearly 7%. After two weeks of "spot up, vol up" and mechanical vanna unwinds, this looked like real selling and real protection-buying. Put demand was the cleanest flow signal of the day.

The bigger news is under the hood. Implied correlation (COR1M) — the metric that tells you whether stocks are running their own races or moving together — jumped 26.52% off its historic low. For the first time in weeks, names look like they're starting to move together a little. That's the early warning we've been watching for.

Bottom line: the framework we built Wednesday is starting to activate. Scenario B (index catches up to names) was 25% odds — Friday's price action and COR1M pivot moves that closer to 40%. Tuesday is VIXpiration. Wednesday is NVDA earnings. The catalyst window is live. Watch the flow.

VIX Decomposition · Thu May 14 → Fri May 15

SPX

7501.24 → 7408.50

−1.24% (−92.74)

VIX

17.26 → 18.43

+6.78% (+1.17) 🚨

🔍 Factor Breakdown

+1.01 Sticky Strike: ⚠️ DOMINANT — mechanical lift from SPX falling 1.24%. Curve-slide into higher IV strikes.

(0.28) Parallel Shift: Negative — but this is the offset to Sticky's surge. Mechanical, NOT flow-driven walk-away.

+0.47 Put Skew: ⚠️ PUTS BID HARD — biggest factor after Sticky. Real protection-on signature.

(0.25) Call Skew: ⚠️ CALLS SOLD — confirms the collar/risk-reversal pattern

+0.14 Downside Convexity: Small downside tail bid · supports protection theme

+0.09 Upside Convexity: Slight upside tail lift · minor

📊 Read: Two stories. Mechanical story: Sticky Strike +1.01 from SPX falling, offset by Parallel Shift (0.28) — net mechanical contribution +0.73. Flow story: Put Skew +0.47, Call Skew (0.25), Dn Convexity +0.14, Up Convexity +0.09 — a clean risk-reversal print, just smaller magnitude than May 11's collar. Customers bought puts and sold calls on a real down day. Total +1.17 matches VIX move exactly. The protection bid is real but measured — not panic, not capitulation.

📐 Mechanical vs Flow Split

⚙️ MECHANICAL

Sticky Strike +1.01
Parallel Shift (0.28) [offset]
→ Net mechanical: +0.73

📊 FLOW (R/R signature)

Put Skew +0.47 / Call Skew (0.25)
Dn Conv +0.14 / Up Conv +0.09
→ Net flow: +0.45

Important nuance: the negative Parallel Shift today is NOT the "sellers won" pattern of May 7 or the "vanna unwind" of May 12. It's the OFFSET to Sticky Strike's mechanical surge on a real selloff. Customer flow today was POSITIVE for vol — they bought puts.

🥩 Parallel Shift Tally — 5+ Weeks, 10 Prints

POSITIVE

7

beef BID

NEGATIVE

3

beef OFFERED

FRIDAY

(0.28)

mechanical offset

Note on Friday's negative: all three negative prints (May 7, May 12, May 15) have different drivers. May 7 = sellers walked away. May 12 = vanna unwind after VIX touched 19. May 15 = mechanical offset to Sticky surge on real selloff. Same sign, different meaning.

🐐 In Plain English

Big VIX move today (+6.78%) on a real SPX drop. Two things drove it. Mechanical: when SPX falls, fixed-strike IV near the old "at the money" suddenly looks more relevant — that's Sticky Strike +1.01, a big mechanical contribution. Real flow: customers bought puts (Put Skew +0.47), sold calls (Call Skew (0.25)). Classic protection-on signature.

The Parallel Shift print is technically negative today, but don't read it the same way as the May 7 or May 12 negatives. Those were customers walking away from vol. Today's was just the offset to the mechanical Sticky surge — the surface didn't NEED to be marked up because Sticky already did it.

Bottom line: customers bought protection on a real down day. Cleanest flow signal of the week. Watch how this carries into Tuesday's VIXpiration.

📐 Body Led VIX +6.78% vs VIX9D +0.74% — kink at the 30-day node

VIX − VIX3M = −2.93

VIX9D

16.36

9d · +0.74%

VIX

18.43

30d · +6.78% 🚨

VIX3M

21.36

91d · +0.38%

VIX6M

23.25

182d · +0.22%

VIX1Y

24.04

365d · +0.12%

VIX Term Structure — Friday May 15, 2026 Close

📊 VIX Decomp — Thu→Fri May 14-15

SPX −1.24% VIX +6.78%

Sticky Strike+1.01 ⚠️

Parallel Shift(0.28)

Put Skew+0.47 ⚠️

Call Skew(0.25) ⚠️

Dn Convexity+0.14

Up Convexity+0.09

Body led the move — different shape than recent sessions. VIX +6.78% (the 30-day node) but VIX9D only +0.74%, VIX3M +0.38%, back end essentially flat. VIX9D/VIX = 0.89, VIX−VIX9D spread widened to 2.07. The kink is at the 30-day point — that's where the protection bid landed. Back end (VIX1Y +0.12%) is structurally bid and doesn't need to move much. Front (VIX9D) lagged because OPEX clears short-dated hedge demand. Curve shape says "concern lives in the 30-day measurement window" — exactly where the May 19 / May 20 catalysts sit.

VVIX / VIX & Cross-Vol — COR1M Pivots

VVIX / VIX Ratio

5.05

−7.66% · low end of band

VVIX

92.93

close · barely budged on VIX rip

VIX

18.43

+6.78% · ripped on selloff

🎯 VIX Outran VVIX Again — Real Spot Vol Demand

Same pattern as Monday May 11. VVIX/VIX fell from 5.46 → 5.05 (−7.66%), but NOT because VVIX rolled over. VIX outran VVIX by a wide margin — VIX +6.78%, VVIX nearly flat. This is real spot vol demand, not VIX-option speculation. Hedges landed at the index level and flowed directly into VIX measurement. No vol-of-vol panic — just clean protection buying.

🚨 COR1M PIVOT — First Real Signal

Implied correlation crashed all week to 8.56 mid-week (well below the 10 floor). Friday it ripped +26.52% to 10.82. Back above 10 for the first time in weeks.

COR1M

10.82 (+26.52%)

🚨 Off floor · above 10

VIXEQ

43.05 (−2.43%)

Names eased modestly

VIXEQ−VIX Spread

~24.6 (compressing)

⚠️ From 26.62 · convergence active

DSPX

38.99 (−3.92%)

Dispersion premium narrowing

Nations SkewDex

60.61 (+0.50%)

Index put demand bid

Nations TailDex

14.40 (+2.98%)

Index tails firmed

The signature: COR1M ripped, VIXEQ eased, spread compressed, DSPX narrowed — every signal moved TOWARD unwind together. First time the dispersion suite has shown coordinated movement. Convergence is happening primarily through INDEX vol catching up, not through name vol collapsing. 5-signal unwind checklist: 2/5 firing (COR1M off floor, spread compressing).

🐐 In Plain English

Two big VVIX/VIX moments in a week. Last Friday VVIX outran VIX (vol-of-vol panic without spot vol). Today VIX outran VVIX (real spot vol demand without speculation). Different patterns, both informative.

But the headline is COR1M. It's been below 10 for weeks — historic floor territory. Friday it jumped 26% to 10.82. The dispersion suite all moved together for the first time. Names eased a bit, index caught up. The spread between them started to close.

Bottom line: the peak-dispersion regime that ran for a month is showing its first signs of pivoting. Not confirmed unwind — but the first real signal we've been watching for. Tuesday and Wednesday tell us a lot.

Today's Deep Dive — New Toolkit Lens

The VIX Futures VRP Map —
Three Lenses, One Conclusion

McMillan's volatility-risk-premium framework adds a third lens to the peak-dispersion read. All three pointing the same direction.

📊 VIX Futures VRP Map — Friday May 15 Close

Tenor	Price	20-day HV	Read
VIX cash	18.43	89%	(cash · ignore for VRP)
VX1 (front)	20.66	42%	Fair · earned its price
VX2	21.83	27%	Moderate premium
Jul'26	21.83	20%	Getting rich
Aug'26	22.23	16%	Expensive rel to realized
Sep'26 ⭐	22.58	13%	🚨 Most expensive · screaming

Two patterns: Curve "too flat" (only ~4 points between front and Sep) but HV plunges (42% → 13%). Back-end HV at 13% is the contrarian "overbought" tell — VIX has been trading in an unusually narrow range out there.

🔬 The Two Insights

1. "Too Flat" — VRP Dislocation

Front (VX1) priced 20.66 with 42% HV — barely paying anything over realized. Back (Sep) priced 22.58 with 13% HV — paying enormous premium over realized. Participants are paying up for far-dated protection while near-term is fair. Structural-fear signature.

2. "HV Overbought" — Contrarian Setup

Back-end HV at 13-16% across Aug/Sep is extremely depressed. Means VIX itself has been trading in an unusually narrow range out the curve — mechanical compression, flow-driven calm. This is McMillan's "overbought" contrarian signal. Regime tool, not timing tool. Fires when back-end HV starts to tick UP from current levels.

🎯 Three Lenses, Same Story

Same peak-dispersion regime visible through three different mathematical frameworks. All pointing the same direction.

Lens 1 — VIXEQ-VIX Spread (Constituent vs Index)

Spread at ~24.6, was 26.62 Wed. Names paying way more for protection than index. CBOE flagged 98th percentile.

Lens 2 — Parallel Shift Pattern (Surface Bid)

7 of 10 prints positive in 5+ weeks. The price of beef keeps getting bid up — customers structurally adding vol exposure.

Lens 3 — VRP Map (NEW · Futures-Curve Vol Risk Premium)

Curve "too flat" in VRP terms. Back-end HV at 13-16% — extreme contrarian "overbought" setup. Participants paying up for far-dated tenors that have been quiet.

High-conviction read: when three independent measures of vol behavior all point to the same conclusion — structural protection bid in far tenors while near tenors are fair — it's not noise. This is the regime in three dimensions. The COR1M pivot Friday is the first sign one of these is starting to resolve.

🔍 The Catalyst Window — Tue May 19 → Wed May 20

OPEX (Fri May 15) is behind us — and it bit. Next two sessions are the gate:

Tuesday May 19 — VIXpiration. Forces convergence between VIX derivatives and SOQ of 30-day forward SPX variance. Curve currently in contango — pulls vol lower mechanically. Any move into backwardation here is a serious warning signal.
Wednesday May 20 — NVDA Earnings. Skew Rank 99.2% — priced for an extreme event. The single mega-cap catalyst that could trigger broad re-correlation (Scenario B). Watch IV crush vs sustained bid.
Back-end HV (Sep VIX future). Sitting at 13% — McMillan contrarian level. If it ticks above 16-17%, the "rubber band" is stretching back — early warning of regime change.
COR1M continuation. Friday's jump to 10.82 was print #1 above floor. If Tuesday/Wednesday print 11+ or 12+, Scenario B is confirmed activating.
Parallel Shift direction. Tally is 7 positive / 3 negative. Watch what Tuesday delivers — positive = protection bid rebuilds, negative = OPEX selloff exhausted itself.

🐐 The Read

Three independent frameworks. Three different ways of measuring the same thing. All pointing the same direction — protection bid is structural in far tenors while near tenors look fair. Lens 1 (VIXEQ-VIX spread) says names see what index doesn't. Lens 2 (Parallel Shift) says customers keep bidding the surface. Lens 3 (VRP map) says the back of the curve is paying up for quiet. Same conclusion through different math.

Friday gave us the first signal one of these is starting to resolve. COR1M pivoted off the floor. The spread compressed via index catching up rather than names collapsing. That's Scenario B activating — the dangerous one we were watching for.

Bottom line: high-conviction read on the regime, first pivot signal in motion, catalyst window opens Tuesday. Three lenses, one conclusion. Watch the back-end HV. Watch COR1M. Watch the flow.